We Got Screwed (SIM #83)
In the 2021 NBA Finals, my favorite childhood team, the Milwaukee Bucks, played my current favorite team, the Phoenix Suns. At the start, I thought to myself, "this is awesome, I win either way", and then as the series went along, I began to realize, "this isn't as awesome, I also lose either way." In my mind, I went in without a chosen side.
As the games started, my natural biases quickly became the evidence for my true, instinctive feelings. I became significantly more frustrated by the officials thinking they were unfairly treating the Bucks; my childhood identity and the years of unfulfilled hopes were just too hard to shake. To add a touch of guilt to this story, I have a personal relationship to the Suns (SIM #61 - Winning with Trust) and nothing but tribal loyalty attached to the Bucks.
There are clearly times when officials get very important things wrong and it can disproportionately swing games, but I’d guess that even those that have been obvious beneficiaries of the biggest officiating mistakes probably feel that they've been screwed more often than helped by officials. So much so that I think we often want to think the randomness of mistakes is intentional or sometimes even a conspiracy. This combination of tribal attachment and human bias is powerful.
I drafted the first three paragraphs a couple of months ago when I read many of the Trump supporters complaining about the disproportionate fact checking and the "rigged" Presidential debate. It's almost impossible to prevent these core instinctive, protective biases from becoming top of mind when things don't go well. “We got screwed” becomes the rallying cry. Based on precedent and rhetoric, I fear something similar is about to be amplified should the election go against Trump. These biases turn otherwise reasonable folks into willing vessels for grand conspiracies to upstage common sense.
Given I do love sports analogies, another one top of mind related to our current politics.
Some of the folks in this SIM community played college basketball for Grinnell College in a unique high-scoring system that prioritized three-pointers and forcing turnovers with aggressive, risk-taking defense. The system in part benefited from fouling so frequently in attempting steals that officials became desensitized to calling fouls. I think that's a core part of Trump's schtick. I talk to many Trump supporters who talk about being aligned with his policies in the abstract and simply ignore what actually comes out of his mouth, as they're desensitized to his actual words and policies. The same largely goes for the media, who are broadly desensitized to outlandish comments and behavior from Trump.
I had an unusual amount of responses to my previous musing (SIM #82 - Trump Won). I’ll admit, the responses did make me a little more optimistic that Trump’s grip on the Republican party will fade if he's unsuccessful this election cycle. Pundits seem to have the election at 50/50. Even with a Trump loss - I would think of it as a Trump loss much more than a Harris win - I remain skeptical that our national debate can get back to being solution focused, as opposed to fear and hate focused; the combination of our echo chambers and the powerful people that are entrenched in benefiting from the fear and hate is a lot to overcome.
Josh